# Methodology: When should you hire your first salesperson?

By Cristian Frunze, Founder of Ken · Oct 2, 2026 · [Ken Research](/research) No. 2 · Founders and startups, Sales teams, Hiring and org design

The full methodology behind [When should you hire your first salesperson?](/research/first-sales-hire.md): the data, every method, every number and every limitation. The same text as the [methodology PDF](/research/first-sales-hire.pdf).

Data snapshot April 2026; analysis October 2026.

## Summary

We rebuilt the hiring history of 26,360 B2B software companies founded 2010-2020 whose team reached at least 10 people, using Ken internal data. For each company we found the first account executive (AE), first sales development rep (SDR), first sales leader and first marketing hire. We measured the company's age and headcount at each hire, and compared companies that grew past 100 employees (2,048) with companies that stayed under 100 (24,312).

**Headline.** Companies that grew past 100 hired their first AE a median 36 months after founding, against 49 months for companies that stayed under 100. That is a difference of 13 months, with a 95% bootstrap interval of 10 to 15 months. They had a median 28 people when the first AE started, against 11, a difference of 17 people (interval 15 to 19). In a survival model that holds company size, age, founding year and industry fixed, having hired a first AE was not linked with a higher chance of reaching 100 employees: hazard ratio 1.07, 95% interval 0.94 to 1.21.

## Hypotheses and verdicts

The hypothesis, plan and pass/fail criteria were pre-registered on 2026-10-16, before any data was pulled.

| Pre-registered hypothesis | Pass/fail rule | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1a. First marketing hire comes before the first AE | Wrong if the median first AE comes before the median first marketing hire | Median first marketing hire at 32 months and 8 people; first AE at 47 months and 12 people; 66.9% of companies with both hired marketing first | Supported |
| H1b. Median first AE at a headcount of about 8-20 | Wrong if outside 5-30 | 12 | Supported |
| H1c. First sales leader after headcount 20 | Stated as an expectation | Median 11; 55.4% hired a sales leader title before any AE | Not supported |
| H2a. Companies that passed 100 made their first AE earlier in company age | Wrong if the difference is 3 months or less, or the interval includes 0 | 13 months earlier (interval 10 to 15) | Supported |
| H2b. ... but at a similar headcount | Wrong if the medians differ by more than 5 people | 28 vs 11, 17 more people (interval 15 to 19) | Not supported |
| H3a. Having hired a first AE is linked with a higher hazard of reaching 100 | Wrong if the 95% interval includes 1 | 1.07 (0.94 to 1.21); discrete-time model with company-clustered errors 1.11 (0.96 to 1.29) | Not supported |
| H3b. A sales leader hired before any AE is linked with a lower hazard | Wrong if not below 1 | 0.95 (0.85 to 1.07); discrete-time 0.96 (0.83 to 1.10) | Not supported (interval includes 1) |

## What the results say

1. **Order.** Marketing came first at two thirds of companies. The first AE came before the first SDR at 60.8% of companies with both. A sales leadership title came before the first AE at 55.4%. At a median team of 11, that title usually belongs to the first senior seller rather than a manager of sellers.
2. **Fast growers hire sooner and bigger.**
 - Companies that grew past 100 made every first hire earlier in company age: marketing 23 vs 34 months, AE 36 vs 49, SDR 46 vs 55, sales leader 34 vs 46.
 - They did so with more people on the team: marketing 17 vs 8, AE 28 vs 11, SDR 43 vs 14, sales leader 26 vs 10.
 - They were also far more likely to have an AE title at all (78.2% vs 34.4%).
 - The gaps hold within each founding cohort, without IT services firms, for US-headquartered companies only, and for companies whose website is still in the latest web crawl (Table 4).
3. **No independent link with growth.** Once headcount in the previous quarter is in the model, none of the four first-hire indicators, and not the leader-before-AE order, shows a link with reaching 100 employees. That holds in both model forms, with 50 employees as the outcome, without companies whose first hires came before 2015, and for US companies with Form D funding added (Table 5). Headcount itself dominates the model, as expected for an outcome defined by headcount.
4. **Interpretation.** Companies that are growing fast hire everything sooner in calendar time, sales included, and have more people around when they do. The data supports "fast growers hire sellers early" as a description. It does not support "hiring a seller early makes you grow" as advice.

## Results tables

Cells resting on fewer than 50 companies are suppressed. The Cox models use 26,133 of the 26,360 sample companies. The other 227 contribute no at-risk quarters: either they had already reached 100 by the quarter they entered the risk set, or they entered it in the final quarter of the data.

### Table 1. Sample

| Step | Companies |
|---|---|
| software-set company records founded 2010-2020 | 238,190 |
| with at least one rebuilt-headcount quarter | 148,509 |
| analysis sample: rebuilt headcount reached 10 | 26,360 |
| passed 100 | 2,048 |
| stalled (never reached 100) | 24,312 |
| analysis sample, US HQ | 17,764 |
| analysis sample with a first ae | 9,970 |
| analysis sample with a first sdr | 7,459 |
| analysis sample with a first sales leader | 12,611 |
| analysis sample with a first marketing hire | 18,995 |

### Table 2a. Company age at the hire (months since 1 July of the founding year)

| Group | Founded | Hire | Companies with hire | Share of group | Median | 25th pct | 75th pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | all | First AE | 9,970 | 37.8% | 47 | 25 | 77 |
| All | all | First SDR | 7,459 | 28.3% | 54 | 32 | 82 |
| All | all | First sales leader | 12,611 | 47.8% | 44 | 22 | 73 |
| All | all | First marketing hire | 18,995 | 72.1% | 32 | 12 | 60 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First AE | 4,389 | 39.8% | 60 | 32 | 98 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 3,109 | 28.2% | 75 | 44 | 111 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 5,527 | 50.1% | 56 | 26 | 93 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 8,050 | 72.9% | 42 | 18 | 81 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First AE | 5,581 | 36.4% | 40 | 22 | 62 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 4,350 | 28.4% | 44 | 26 | 64 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 7,084 | 46.2% | 38 | 18 | 60 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 10,945 | 71.4% | 27 | 11 | 49 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First AE | 1,601 | 78.2% | 36 | 18 | 61 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First SDR | 1,453 | 70.9% | 46 | 28 | 71 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First sales leader | 1,759 | 85.9% | 34 | 16 | 57 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First marketing hire | 1,983 | 96.8% | 23 | 9 | 43 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First AE | 877 | 80.5% | 44 | 23 | 73 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 790 | 72.5% | 57 | 35 | 89 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 949 | 87.1% | 39 | 20 | 68 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 1,068 | 98.0% | 26 | 11 | 50 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First AE | 724 | 75.6% | 30 | 14 | 51 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 663 | 69.2% | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 810 | 84.6% | 28 | 13 | 47 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 915 | 95.5% | 19 | 6 | 37 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First AE | 8,369 | 34.4% | 49 | 27 | 79 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First SDR | 6,006 | 24.7% | 55 | 33 | 85 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First sales leader | 10,852 | 44.6% | 46 | 23 | 75 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First marketing hire | 17,012 | 70.0% | 34 | 13 | 62 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First AE | 3,512 | 35.3% | 66 | 36 | 104 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 2,319 | 23.3% | 84 | 48 | 117 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 4,578 | 46.0% | 60 | 30 | 98 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 6,982 | 70.2% | 47 | 19 | 85 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First AE | 4,857 | 33.8% | 42 | 24 | 63 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 3,687 | 25.7% | 46 | 27 | 66 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 6,274 | 43.7% | 39 | 19 | 61 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 10,030 | 69.8% | 28 | 11 | 50 |

### Table 2b. Headcount at the last quarter end before the hire (primary, pre-registered)

| Group | Founded | Hire | Companies with hire | Share of group | Median | 25th pct | 75th pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | all | First AE | 9,970 | 37.8% | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| All | all | First SDR | 7,459 | 28.3% | 16 | 9 | 31 |
| All | all | First sales leader | 12,611 | 47.8% | 11 | 6 | 21 |
| All | all | First marketing hire | 18,995 | 72.1% | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First AE | 4,389 | 39.8% | 13 | 7 | 24 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 3,109 | 28.2% | 19 | 10 | 36 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 5,527 | 50.1% | 11 | 6 | 21 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 8,050 | 72.9% | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First AE | 5,581 | 36.4% | 12 | 7 | 21 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 4,350 | 28.4% | 15 | 8 | 27 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 7,084 | 46.2% | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 10,945 | 71.4% | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First AE | 1,601 | 78.2% | 28 | 13 | 67 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First SDR | 1,453 | 70.9% | 43 | 21 | 91 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First sales leader | 1,759 | 85.9% | 26 | 12 | 62 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First marketing hire | 1,983 | 96.8% | 17 | 8 | 35 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First AE | 877 | 80.5% | 27 | 13 | 64 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 790 | 72.5% | 45 | 23 | 93 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 949 | 87.1% | 24 | 11 | 58 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 1,068 | 98.0% | 15 | 7 | 31 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First AE | 724 | 75.6% | 29 | 14 | 71 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 663 | 69.2% | 41 | 18 | 86 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 810 | 84.6% | 28 | 13 | 66 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 915 | 95.5% | 19 | 9 | 39 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First AE | 8,369 | 34.4% | 11 | 7 | 19 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First SDR | 6,006 | 24.7% | 14 | 8 | 24 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First sales leader | 10,852 | 44.6% | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First marketing hire | 17,012 | 70.0% | 8 | 4 | 13 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First AE | 3,512 | 35.3% | 11 | 7 | 20 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 2,319 | 23.3% | 15 | 9 | 27 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 4,578 | 46.0% | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 6,982 | 70.2% | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First AE | 4,857 | 33.8% | 11 | 7 | 19 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 3,687 | 25.7% | 13 | 8 | 22 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 6,274 | 43.7% | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 10,030 | 69.8% | 8 | 4 | 13 |

### Table 2c. People already at the company in the hire month (check)

| Group | Founded | Hire | Companies with hire | Share of group | Median | 25th pct | 75th pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | all | First AE | 9,970 | 37.8% | 12 | 7 | 23 |
| All | all | First SDR | 7,459 | 28.3% | 17 | 9 | 31 |
| All | all | First sales leader | 12,611 | 47.8% | 11 | 6 | 21 |
| All | all | First marketing hire | 18,995 | 72.1% | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First AE | 4,389 | 39.8% | 13 | 7 | 24 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 3,109 | 28.2% | 19 | 10 | 37 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 5,527 | 50.1% | 11 | 6 | 21 |
| All | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 8,050 | 72.9% | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First AE | 5,581 | 36.4% | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 4,350 | 28.4% | 15 | 9 | 28 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 7,084 | 46.2% | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| All | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 10,945 | 71.4% | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First AE | 1,601 | 78.2% | 29 | 14 | 69 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First SDR | 1,453 | 70.9% | 44 | 22 | 93 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First sales leader | 1,759 | 85.9% | 27 | 12 | 63 |
| Grew past 100 | all | First marketing hire | 1,983 | 96.8% | 17 | 8 | 36 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First AE | 877 | 80.5% | 27 | 13 | 65 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 790 | 72.5% | 45 | 23 | 96 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 949 | 87.1% | 24 | 12 | 58 |
| Grew past 100 | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 1,068 | 98.0% | 16 | 8 | 33 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First AE | 724 | 75.6% | 30 | 14 | 72 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 663 | 69.2% | 42 | 20 | 90 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 810 | 84.6% | 30 | 14 | 69 |
| Grew past 100 | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 915 | 95.5% | 20 | 10 | 40 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First AE | 8,369 | 34.4% | 11 | 7 | 19 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First SDR | 6,006 | 24.7% | 14 | 8 | 24 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First sales leader | 10,852 | 44.6% | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| Stayed under 100 | all | First marketing hire | 17,012 | 70.0% | 8 | 4 | 13 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First AE | 3,512 | 35.3% | 11 | 7 | 19 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First SDR | 2,319 | 23.3% | 15 | 9 | 27 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First sales leader | 4,578 | 46.0% | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2010-2014 | First marketing hire | 6,982 | 70.2% | 8 | 4 | 13 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First AE | 4,857 | 33.8% | 11 | 7 | 19 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First SDR | 3,687 | 25.7% | 13 | 8 | 23 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First sales leader | 6,274 | 43.7% | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| Stayed under 100 | 2015-2020 | First marketing hire | 10,030 | 69.8% | 8 | 4 | 13 |

### Table 3. Order of first hires (companies that made both)

| Group | First | Then | Companies | Share first strictly before | Same month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | First marketing hire | First AE | 8,764 | 66.9% | 2.3% |
| All | First AE | First SDR | 5,687 | 60.8% | 2.7% |
| All | First AE | First sales leader | 7,703 | 41.6% | 3.1% |
| All | First sales leader | First AE | 7,703 | 55.4% | 3.1% |
| All | First SDR | First AE | 5,687 | 36.6% | 2.7% |
| All | First marketing hire | First sales leader | 10,780 | 61.4% | 2.1% |
| Grew past 100 | First marketing hire | First AE | 1,585 | 69.2% | 3.2% |
| Grew past 100 | First AE | First SDR | 1,350 | 66.2% | 2.7% |
| Grew past 100 | First AE | First sales leader | 1,534 | 42.4% | 3.5% |
| Grew past 100 | First sales leader | First AE | 1,534 | 54.1% | 3.5% |
| Grew past 100 | First SDR | First AE | 1,350 | 31.1% | 2.7% |
| Grew past 100 | First marketing hire | First sales leader | 1,739 | 64.1% | 2.1% |
| Stayed under 100 | First marketing hire | First AE | 7,179 | 66.4% | 2.1% |
| Stayed under 100 | First AE | First SDR | 4,337 | 59.1% | 2.7% |
| Stayed under 100 | First AE | First sales leader | 6,169 | 41.4% | 2.9% |
| Stayed under 100 | First sales leader | First AE | 6,169 | 55.7% | 2.9% |
| Stayed under 100 | First SDR | First AE | 4,337 | 38.3% | 2.7% |
| Stayed under 100 | First marketing hire | First sales leader | 9,041 | 60.9% | 2.1% |

### Table 4. Grew past 100 vs stayed under 100 (difference in medians, 95% bootstrap interval, 2,000 resamples)

| Sample | Hire | Measure | Companies (grew) | Median (grew) | Companies (stayed) | Median (stayed) | Difference | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all software set | First AE | age, months | 1,601 | 36 | 8,369 | 49 | -13 | -15 to -10 |
| all software set | First AE | headcount, quarter end | 1,601 | 28 | 8,369 | 11 | +17 | 15 to 19 |
| all software set | First AE | headcount, hire month | 1,601 | 29 | 8,369 | 11 | +18 | 16 to 20 |
| all software set | First SDR | age, months | 1,453 | 46 | 6,006 | 55 | -9 | -12 to -7 |
| all software set | First SDR | headcount, quarter end | 1,453 | 43 | 6,006 | 14 | +29 | 26 to 32 |
| all software set | First SDR | headcount, hire month | 1,453 | 44 | 6,006 | 14 | +30 | 26 to 33 |
| all software set | First sales leader | age, months | 1,759 | 34 | 10,852 | 46 | -12 | -14 to -10 |
| all software set | First sales leader | headcount, quarter end | 1,759 | 26 | 10,852 | 10 | +16 | 14 to 18 |
| all software set | First sales leader | headcount, hire month | 1,759 | 27 | 10,852 | 10 | +17 | 15 to 19 |
| all software set | First marketing hire | age, months | 1,983 | 23 | 17,012 | 34 | -11 | -12 to -9 |
| all software set | First marketing hire | headcount, quarter end | 1,983 | 17 | 17,012 | 8 | +9 | 8 to 10 |
| all software set | First marketing hire | headcount, hire month | 1,983 | 17 | 17,012 | 8 | +9 | 9 to 10 |
| excluding IT services | First AE | age, months | 1,348 | 36 | 6,037 | 47 | -11 | -13.5 to -8 |
| excluding IT services | First AE | headcount, quarter end | 1,348 | 26 | 6,037 | 12 | +14 | 12.5 to 16 |
| excluding IT services | First AE | headcount, hire month | 1,348 | 27 | 6,037 | 12 | +15 | 13 to 17 |
| founded 2015-2020 | First AE | age, months | 724 | 30 | 4,857 | 42 | -12 | -14 to -10 |
| founded 2015-2020 | First AE | headcount, quarter end | 724 | 29 | 4,857 | 11 | +18 | 15 to 22 |
| founded 2015-2020 | First AE | headcount, hire month | 724 | 30 | 4,857 | 11 | +19 | 16 to 24 |
| founded 2010-2014 | First AE | age, months | 877 | 44 | 3,512 | 66 | -22 | -26 to -19 |
| founded 2010-2014 | First AE | headcount, quarter end | 877 | 27 | 3,512 | 11 | +16 | 14 to 19 |
| founded 2010-2014 | First AE | headcount, hire month | 877 | 27 | 3,512 | 11 | +16 | 14 to 19 |
| US HQ | First AE | age, months | 1,314 | 35 | 6,062 | 47 | -12 | -14.5 to -10 |
| US HQ | First AE | headcount, quarter end | 1,314 | 27 | 6,062 | 11 | +16 | 14 to 18 |
| US HQ | First AE | headcount, hire month | 1,314 | 28 | 6,062 | 11 | +17 | 15 to 19 |
| domain live in latest crawl | First AE | age, months | 1,544 | 37 | 8,151 | 49 | -12 | -15 to -10 |
| domain live in latest crawl | First AE | headcount, quarter end | 1,544 | 28 | 8,151 | 11 | +17 | 15 to 20 |
| domain live in latest crawl | First AE | headcount, hire month | 1,544 | 29 | 8,151 | 11 | +18 | 16 to 20 |
| domain not in latest crawl | First AE | age, months | 57 | 30 | 218 | 44 | -14 | -27 to -2.5 |
| domain not in latest crawl | First AE | headcount, quarter end | 57 | 22 | 218 | 12 | +10 | 3 to 20.025 |
| domain not in latest crawl | First AE | headcount, hire month | 57 | 24 | 218 | 11 | +13 | 3 to 25 |

### Table 5. Time to 100 employees: hazard ratios

| Model | Term | Hazard ratio | 95% interval | p | Standard errors | Companies | Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| main: time to 100 | First AE hired | 1.07 | 0.94 to 1.21 | 0.300 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 | First SDR hired | 0.96 | 0.86 to 1.08 | 0.515 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 | First sales leader hired | 1.04 | 0.89 to 1.21 | 0.652 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 | First marketing hire made | 1.09 | 0.91 to 1.30 | 0.362 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 | Sales leader hired before any AE | 0.95 | 0.85 to 1.07 | 0.412 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 | Log headcount, previous quarter | 4.53e+05 | 2.77e+05 to 7.41e+05 | 0.000 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 (discrete-time) | First AE hired | 1.11 | 0.96 to 1.29 | 0.154 | robust clustered by company | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 (discrete-time) | First SDR hired | 0.96 | 0.83 to 1.12 | 0.643 | robust clustered by company | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 (discrete-time) | First sales leader hired | 1.06 | 0.87 to 1.29 | 0.549 | robust clustered by company | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 (discrete-time) | First marketing hire made | 1.17 | 0.92 to 1.48 | 0.197 | robust clustered by company | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 (discrete-time) | Sales leader hired before any AE | 0.96 | 0.83 to 1.10 | 0.562 | robust clustered by company | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| main: time to 100 (discrete-time) | Log headcount, previous quarter | 3.28e+06 | 1.41e+06 to 7.64e+06 | 0.000 | robust clustered by company | 26,133 | 1,964 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | First AE hired | 1.03 | 0.89 to 1.19 | 0.730 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | First SDR hired | 0.96 | 0.84 to 1.09 | 0.498 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | First sales leader hired | 1.09 | 0.91 to 1.31 | 0.348 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | First marketing hire made | 1.17 | 0.95 to 1.45 | 0.139 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | Sales leader hired before any AE | 0.95 | 0.84 to 1.08 | 0.456 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | Log headcount, previous quarter | 3.49e+05 | 2.01e+05 to 6.03e+05 | 0.000 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | Form D raise filed | 0.73 | 0.24 to 2.23 | 0.578 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding | Log cumulative Form D amount | 1.02 | 0.96 to 1.09 | 0.536 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | First AE hired | 1.07 | 0.91 to 1.28 | 0.409 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | First SDR hired | 0.95 | 0.80 to 1.13 | 0.574 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | First sales leader hired | 1.13 | 0.90 to 1.41 | 0.292 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | First marketing hire made | 1.24 | 0.95 to 1.63 | 0.114 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | Sales leader hired before any AE | 0.97 | 0.83 to 1.13 | 0.691 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | Log headcount, previous quarter | 2.56e+06 | 1.01e+06 to 6.5e+06 | 0.000 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | Form D raise filed | 0.66 | 0.17 to 2.54 | 0.549 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| US HQ with Form D funding (discrete-time) | Log cumulative Form D amount | 1.03 | 0.95 to 1.11 | 0.520 | robust clustered by company | 17,608 | 1,545 |
| robustness: time to 50 | First AE hired | 1.06 | 0.99 to 1.15 | 0.113 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 | First SDR hired | 1.05 | 0.97 to 1.12 | 0.235 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 | First sales leader hired | 0.97 | 0.88 to 1.07 | 0.589 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 | First marketing hire made | 0.96 | 0.89 to 1.05 | 0.390 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 | Sales leader hired before any AE | 1.03 | 0.94 to 1.12 | 0.571 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 | Log headcount, previous quarter | 1.98e+05 | 1.47e+05 to 2.66e+05 | 0.000 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 (discrete-time) | First AE hired | 1.08 | 0.99 to 1.18 | 0.101 | robust clustered by company | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 (discrete-time) | First SDR hired | 1.07 | 0.98 to 1.17 | 0.128 | robust clustered by company | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 (discrete-time) | First sales leader hired | 0.98 | 0.87 to 1.10 | 0.731 | robust clustered by company | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 (discrete-time) | First marketing hire made | 0.97 | 0.88 to 1.07 | 0.550 | robust clustered by company | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 (discrete-time) | Sales leader hired before any AE | 1.02 | 0.91 to 1.13 | 0.755 | robust clustered by company | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: time to 50 (discrete-time) | Log headcount, previous quarter | 1.09e+06 | 7.09e+05 to 1.68e+06 | 0.000 | robust clustered by company | 26,034 | 4,665 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 | First AE hired | 1.11 | 0.95 to 1.29 | 0.196 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 | First SDR hired | 0.97 | 0.84 to 1.11 | 0.639 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 | First sales leader hired | 1.09 | 0.90 to 1.31 | 0.386 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 | First marketing hire made | 1.10 | 0.90 to 1.35 | 0.345 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 | Sales leader hired before any AE | 0.95 | 0.82 to 1.10 | 0.491 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 | Log headcount, previous quarter | 2.36e+05 | 1.35e+05 to 4.11e+05 | 0.000 | model-based (clustered SE not finite) | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 (discrete-time) | First AE hired | 1.14 | 0.95 to 1.36 | 0.159 | robust clustered by company | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 (discrete-time) | First SDR hired | 0.98 | 0.82 to 1.18 | 0.859 | robust clustered by company | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 (discrete-time) | First sales leader hired | 1.17 | 0.93 to 1.47 | 0.170 | robust clustered by company | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 (discrete-time) | First marketing hire made | 1.17 | 0.92 to 1.50 | 0.207 | robust clustered by company | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 (discrete-time) | Sales leader hired before any AE | 0.95 | 0.80 to 1.12 | 0.518 | robust clustered by company | 22,647 | 1,354 |
| robustness: drop first hires before 2015 (discrete-time) | Log headcount, previous quarter | 1.43e+06 | 5.29e+05 to 3.88e+06 | 0.000 | robust clustered by company | 22,647 | 1,354 |

### Table 6. Proportional hazards checks, main model

| Term | Check | Statistic | p |
|---|---|---|---|
| First AE hired | Schoenfeld residuals vs log time | rho -0.125 | 0.0000 |
| First SDR hired | Schoenfeld residuals vs log time | rho -0.073 | 0.0013 |
| First sales leader hired | Schoenfeld residuals vs log time | rho -0.206 | 0.0000 |
| First marketing hire made | Schoenfeld residuals vs log time | rho -0.216 | 0.0000 |
| Sales leader hired before any AE | Schoenfeld residuals vs log time | rho -0.235 | 0.0000 |
| Log headcount, previous quarter | Schoenfeld residuals vs log time | rho 0.264 | 0.0000 |
| First AE hired | interaction with log time (discrete model) | coef -0.010 | 0.9399 |
| First SDR hired | interaction with log time (discrete model) | coef 0.017 | 0.8908 |
| First sales leader hired | interaction with log time (discrete model) | coef -0.240 | 0.1661 |
| First marketing hire made | interaction with log time (discrete model) | coef -0.102 | 0.5617 |
| Sales leader hired before any AE | interaction with log time (discrete model) | coef -0.066 | 0.6538 |
| Log headcount, previous quarter | interaction with log time (discrete model) | coef 0.305 | 0.0002 |

### Table 7. Early-hire titles (first 10 non-founder people per company)

| Group | People | Companies | Unclassified (other or missing) | Share | Vague titles | Share vague |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 262,530 | 26,343 | 90,220 | 34.4% | 13,567 | 5.2% |
| Grew past 100 | 20,460 | 2,048 | 7,656 | 37.4% | 1,389 | 6.8% |
| Stayed under 100 | 242,070 | 24,295 | 82,564 | 34.1% | 12,178 | 5.0% |

### Table 8. Early-hire titles by function (functions with at least 50 people)

| Function | People | Share |
|---|---|---|
| other | 90,189 | 34.4% |
| software engineering | 55,888 | 21.3% |
| consulting | 17,685 | 6.7% |
| marketing | 15,608 | 5.9% |
| partnerships and business development | 9,441 | 3.6% |
| other engineering | 9,311 | 3.5% |
| general sales | 8,823 | 3.4% |
| student or intern | 7,660 | 2.9% |
| customer support | 6,400 | 2.4% |
| business operations | 6,260 | 2.4% |
| data and analytics | 5,574 | 2.1% |
| recruiting and HR | 5,573 | 2.1% |
| product | 4,335 | 1.7% |
| customer success | 4,057 | 1.5% |
| account executive | 3,842 | 1.5% |
| account management | 3,279 | 1.2% |
| sales engineering | 2,510 | 1.0% |
| SDR/BDR | 1,809 | 0.7% |
| growth marketing | 1,649 | 0.6% |
| revenue operations | 1,511 | 0.6% |
| demand generation | 509 | 0.2% |
| other GTM roles | 277 | 0.1% |
| marketing operations | 251 | 0.1% |

### Table 9. Processing counts

| Step | Count |
|---|---|
| Work-history roles read for headcount | 555,053,752 |
| Roles at sample companies | 3,835,966 |
| Dropped: no start date | 127,520 |
| Dropped: no end date and not current | 115 |
| Roles used for headcount | 3,708,331 |
| Sales and marketing roles at sample companies (first-hire step) | 1,608,374 |
| First-hire step, dropped: no start date | 17,189 |
| First-hire step, dropped: before founding year | 42,022 |
| First-hire step, dropped: founder or intern | 90,603 |
| Sample companies with a domain | 212,737 |
| ... of which in the latest web crawl | 207,571 |

## Data

**Ken internal data.** Ken's dataset of public professional profiles, work histories and company records. Each profile lists the person's roles with title, employer, and start and end month. Each company record carries an industry label, a founding year, a headquarters location and a website domain. The profile data covers people whose current country is the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Ireland or New Zealand. Earlier roles can be anywhere. Profiles were last refreshed between November 2025 and April 2026.

**SEC Form D.** US companies raising money under Regulation D file a Form D with the Securities and Exchange Commission, usually within 15 days of the first sale. The SEC publishes every filing as quarterly data sets. We used every quarter from 2008 Q1 to 2026 Q3 and removed investment funds, special purpose vehicles and non-US issuers. We then matched each issuer to a company record by legal name and state. Form D carries no website, so name and state are the only link.

**Ken's web archive.** We used the latest crawl only to check whether each company's website domain is still being crawled. That check feeds one robustness split.

## Sample

Companies whose record has a software industry label (software development; IT services and IT consulting; technology, information and internet; computer and network security; data infrastructure and analytics; and five smaller software product labels) and a founding year from 2010 to 2020. Of those, we kept companies whose headcount, rebuilt from work histories, reached at least 10 people in some quarter. Smaller companies have no team in which to make a "first hire".

Companies that have since shut down stay in the sample. Their former employees still list them in their work histories, so a dead company's early hires and headcount can be rebuilt. This limits survivorship bias, but does not remove it (see Limitations).

## Definitions

- **First AE:** the earliest start month of any role at the company titled as an account executive.
- **First SDR:** the earliest start month of a sales or business development representative role.
- **First sales leader:** the earliest start month of a director, head of, VP or chief level role in sales, account management or revenue operations, or a chief revenue, sales or commercial officer.
- **First marketing hire:** the earliest start month of any marketing, demand generation, growth marketing or marketing operations role.
- Titles are classified by the same fixed rule set used across Ken Research studies. Founders and interns never count as a first hire. Roles that start before 1 January of the founding year are ignored.
- **Company age at a hire:** months from 1 July of the founding year to the hire's start month. Company records give the year only, so mid-year keeps the worst-case error at six months.
- **Headcount:** the number of distinct people with a role at the company that covers a quarter end. A role covers a date when it started on or before it and ended on or after it, or is current. **Headcount before a hire** is the headcount at the last quarter end before the hire month. A month-precision version (people already at the company in the hire month) is reported as a check.
- **Grew past 100:** rebuilt headcount reached 100 at some quarter end up to 2026 Q1. **Stayed under 100:** never did. Every sample company was at least six years old in 2026.

## Methods

1. **Distributions.** For each first hire, the median and the 25th and 75th percentiles of company age and headcount at the hire, among companies that made that hire. Shown for all companies, by founding cohort (2010-2014, 2015-2020) and by outcome group.
2. **Order of hires.** Among companies that made both hires in a pair, the share where one came strictly before the other.
3. **Headline comparison.** The difference in median company age and median headcount at the first AE between companies that grew past 100 and companies that stayed under it, with a 95% bootstrap interval (2,000 resamples of companies within each group).
4. **Survival model.** A Cox proportional hazards model of the time from founding to 100 employees. A company enters the risk set once its headcount first reaches 10, and leaves when it reaches 100 or at 2026 Q1. Each first hire is a time-varying indicator that switches on the quarter after the hire, so a hire only counts from when it happened. This avoids crediting companies that survived long enough to hire with a growth effect. Controls: headcount in the previous quarter (log), founding year, and industry group (as strata). Standard errors are clustered by company. A second model adds Form D funding for US companies: whether the company had filed a Form D raise by the previous quarter, and the log of the cumulative amount raised. A discrete-time version of each model (complementary log-log, quarterly) is reported next to it.
5. **Checks.** Proportional hazards tested with Schoenfeld residuals against log time. Robustness:
 - 50 employees instead of 100 as the outcome;
 - dropping companies whose first hires fall before 2015;
 - splitting companies whose domain appears in the latest web crawl from those whose domain doesn't;
 - excluding IT services companies;
 - US companies only.
6. **Privacy.** Only aggregates are reported. Any cell with fewer than 50 companies or 50 people is suppressed.

The hypothesis, plan and pass/fail criteria were pre-registered before any data was pulled.

## Limitations

- **Self-reported histories.** People leave short jobs off their profiles and add new jobs late. Early employees who left long ago and deleted their profiles are missing, so rebuilt headcount undercounts, most of all for older years and smaller companies.
- **Six countries.** Only people whose current profile country is one of six English-speaking countries are in the data. A company's staff elsewhere are missing from its headcount, and a first hire made abroad can be missed.
- **Titles.** Early hires often have vague titles ("founding team", "operations", "generalist"). A person who sold under such a title is not counted as an AE. The share of early titles the rules could not classify is reported.
- **Title edits.** When someone is promoted, some people edit the old title instead of adding a role, so an early AE can show up only as a later manager or leader.
- **Survivorship.** Dead companies appear only through former employees who still have active profiles, so they are thinner in the data than live ones.
- **Funding.** Form D covers only US issuers using a Regulation D exemption, and many small raises are never filed. "No Form D" means no recorded filing, not "never raised". Name matching misses renamed companies.
- **Correlation, not cause.** The survival model shows which hiring patterns are linked with reaching 100 employees, controlling for size, age, industry and funding. It cannot show that hiring earlier causes growth. Companies that already see demand both hire sellers and grow.
- **Industry labels.** "Software" is a self-chosen label on the company record. IT services firms and agencies are included and are checked separately.

## Sources

- Ken internal data: Ken's dataset of public professional profiles, work histories and company records (snapshot April 2026).
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Form D data sets, 2008 Q1 to 2026 Q3, sec.gov.
- Ken's web archive, September 2026 crawl. 

## Verification

An independent re-analysis, written from the study plan without seeing our code, recomputed the headline numbers on 2026-10-17. It was given only the study plan, the logged decisions and the raw extracts. It did not see the study's code, derived tables or results.

| Headline number | Study | Independent recomputation | Match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analysis sample; grew past 100; stayed under 100 | 26,360; 2,048; 24,312 | 26,360; 2,048; 24,312 | yes |
| Companies with a first AE (all; grew; stayed) | 9,970; 1,601; 8,369 | 9,970; 1,601; 8,369 | yes |
| Median company age at first AE (all; grew; stayed), months | 47; 36; 49 | 47; 36; 49 | yes |
| Median headcount before first AE (all; grew; stayed) | 12; 28; 11 | 12; 28; 11 | yes |
| Difference in median age at first AE, 95% interval | -13 (-15 to -10) | -13 (-15 to -10) | yes |
| Difference in median headcount before first AE, 95% interval | +17 (15 to 19) | +17 (15 to 19) | yes |
| First marketing hire, SDR, sales leader: companies, median age, median headcount | 18,995, 32, 8; 7,459, 54, 16; 12,611, 44, 11 | same | yes |
| Marketing strictly before first AE; sales leader strictly before first AE | 0.669 of 8,764; 0.554 of 7,703 | 0.669 of 8,764; 0.554 of 7,703 | yes |
| Early-hire titles unclassified | 34.4% | 34.4% (262,531 people; the study's audit table has 262,530) | yes, to the reported precision |
| Discrete-time hazard ratio, first AE hired (95% interval) | 1.11 (0.96 to 1.29) | 1.11 (0.96 to 1.29) | yes, after the fix below |
| Discrete-time hazard ratio, sales leader before any AE | 0.96 (0.83 to 1.10) | 0.96 (0.83 to 1.10) | yes, after the fix below |

**One mismatch, found and fixed.** In the first comparison, the study's discrete-time model gave 0.95 for the lower bound on "first AE hired" and 0.94 (0.82 to 1.09) for "sales leader before any AE". The recomputation gave 0.96 and 0.96 (0.83 to 1.10). The cause was the order rule. The study's model decided whether the leader came before the AE by comparing hire quarters, while the recomputation compared start months, the same rule the order table uses. Month precision matches the plan's wording better, so the study's model was changed to it (Decision D21) and rerun. After the fix, every term in the discrete-time model matches the recomputation to two decimals. The Cox estimate for "first AE hired" moved from 1.06 to 1.07 with the same interval. No descriptive number changed.

The recomputation's early-hire audit counted one more person (262,531 vs 262,530). It kept spells with no end date that are not current, which the study's code drops before the audit. The share is the same to a tenth of a percent.

The recomputation did not fit the Cox model, the funding model or the robustness models. Those use the same panel and covariates as the discrete-time model it did reproduce.

### Alternative explanations considered

1. **Fast growers are bigger at every age, so they reach any headcount sooner.** This is the main reason the fast growers' first AE comes earlier in age but at a larger team. The survival model addresses it by comparing companies of the same size in the same quarter; there, the first-hire indicators show no link with reaching 100. *Ruled out as a confounder of the model result; it is the explanation of the descriptive gap.*
2. **Reverse causation: growth causes the hire.** Companies that start to grow hire sellers. The model only counts a hire from the quarter after it happens and holds the previous quarter's headcount fixed, which removes the mechanical part. A company that hires because it expects growth can't be separated from one that grows because it hired. *Named as a limitation; the study makes no causal claim.*
3. **Survivorship.** Fast growers keep more employees with active profiles, so their history is rebuilt more completely. That could make their headcount at the hire look larger. The gap is large (28 vs 11) and holds in both founding cohorts and in the US-only sample, but it can't be ruled out. *Limitation.*
4. **Title conventions.** At small companies the first seller may carry a "head of sales" or "founding AE" title, or a vague one. A sales leader title came before any AE at 55.4% of companies with both, and 34.4% of early hires have unclassified titles. *Named as a limitation; the leader result is read as a title effect.*
5. **IT services firms** have different hiring patterns. Dropping them leaves the gaps in place (36 vs 47 months; 26 vs 12 people). *Ruled out.*
6. **Older companies' early years are thin in the data.** The gaps hold for companies founded 2015-2020 (30 vs 42 months; 29 vs 11 people), and the model results hold when companies whose first hires came before 2015 are dropped. *Ruled out.*
7. **Funding drives both hiring and growth.** For US companies, adding recorded Form D raises leaves the first-AE estimate at 1.03 (0.89 to 1.19). Form D misses many raises, so funding is only partly controlled. *Partly ruled out.*
8. **Proportional hazards.** The Schoenfeld residual check finds that the link between the hire indicators and the hazard changes with company age (Table 6). The reported hazard ratios are averages over company age, not constant effects. The discrete-time model's interaction terms show no significant change for the hire indicators. *Named as a limitation.*

### Further limitations found during the analysis

- The field that links merged company ids was empty on every sample company record, so spells pointing at a merged company id could not be folded onto the current record. Those spells are missing from the affected companies.
- In the Cox model, clustered standard errors were not numerically finite in any specification, so it reports model-based errors (Table 5, column "Standard errors"). The discrete-time model with company-clustered errors gives the same conclusions and is the one the independent recomputation reproduced.